Pair #2398

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 41704

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21SAKMED-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Sakamoto vs Medvedev : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the Sakamoto vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Medvedev must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 64 match against Sakamoto. If he wins the tournament, he must have won this earlier round match. The reverse does not hold — winning this match does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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