Pair #2397

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-DMED

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 714

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21SAKMED-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Sakamoto vs Medvedev : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the Sakamoto vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31, 2026 does not logically necessitate winning a specific Round of 64 match in March 2026, and winning a single early-round match does not necessitate being #1 ranked at year end. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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