Pair #2396

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAHOCKEY-26-MIC

Will Michigan win the College Hockey National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEY
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 107669

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michigan is the 2026 College Hockey National Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME-26MAR212000OSUMIC-MIC

Ohio State vs Michigan Winner?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-03-22T03:00:00Z
Volume: 201

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michigan is the winner (inclusive of overtime but excluding shootouts) of the Ohio State vs Michigan college hockey game scheduled for Mar 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: need more info
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: Winning the College Hockey National Championship would require Michigan to win multiple games, but we don't know if Ohio State vs Michigan on Mar 21 is a necessary step in the tournament bracket for Michigan to win the championship. If this game is part of the tournament path Michigan must take, then winning the championship would imply winning this game, but without knowing the bracket structure and whether this specific matchup is on Michigan's required path, we cannot confirm the implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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