Pair #2394

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU

Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2434

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR21PARGAU-GAU

Will Coco Gauff win the Parks vs Gauff : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-03-21T17:00:00Z
Volume: 859

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins the Parks vs Gauff professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam is entirely separate from a WTA Miami Round of 32 match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue