Pair #2390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOWOMEN-26-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1533

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20GIBOSA-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the Gibson vs Osaka : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 29124

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the Gibson vs Osaka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: To win the WTA Miami Open, Osaka must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 64 match against Gibson. Winning the tournament necessitates winning that match. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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