Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-COL
Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6394336
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLCENTRAL-26-COL
Will Colorado Avalanche win the NHL Central Division?
Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 20543
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:36Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division (a team can advance as a wild card). Winning the Central Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.96%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9600
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.18%
BELOW HURDLE