Pair #239

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-COL

Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6394336

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-COL

Will Colorado Avalanche win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 20543

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division (a team can advance as a wild card). Winning the Central Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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