Pair #2389

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-NOSA

Will Naomi Osaka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Naomi Osaka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20GIBOSA-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the Gibson vs Osaka : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 29124

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Naomi Osaka wins the Gibson vs Osaka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is entirely separate from a WTA Miami Round of 64 match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue