Pair #2388

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 133328

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20GIBOSA-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the Gibson vs Osaka : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 29124

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the Gibson vs Osaka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: These are two different tournaments (French Open vs WTA Miami Round of 64). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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