Pair #2386

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-PAO

Will Jasmine Paolini win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Jasmine Paolini
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 26971

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jasmine Paolini wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR21OSTPAO-PAO

Will Jasmine Paolini win the Ostapenko vs Paolini : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jasmine Paolini
Expiration: 2026-03-21T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11028

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jasmine Paolini wins the Ostapenko vs Paolini professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: These are two different tournaments (French Open vs WTA Miami Round of 32). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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