Pair #2385

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-PAO

Will Jasmine Paolini win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Jasmine Paolini
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 26971

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jasmine Paolini wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOWOMEN-26-PAO

Will Jasmine Paolini win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Jasmine Paolini
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1290

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jasmine Paolini wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:42Z

Reasoning: The French Open and WTA Miami Open are entirely separate tournaments. Winning one does not necessitate winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -51.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -55.68% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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