Pair #2382

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MAND

Will Mirra Andreeva win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2871

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR21ANDBOU-AND

Will Mirra Andreeva win the Andreeva vs Bouzkova : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Mirra Andreeva
Expiration: 2026-03-21T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1128

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mirra Andreeva wins the Andreeva vs Bouzkova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning any Miami Open match, and winning a Miami Round of 32 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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