Antecedent (if this happens)
KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JOV
Will Iva Jovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4158
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Iva Jovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20JOVBAD-JOV
Will Iva Jovic win the Jovic vs Badosa : Round Of 64 match?
Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49711
YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.3900
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Iva Jovic wins the Jovic vs Badosa professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:25Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning any Miami Open match. Winning a Miami Round of 64 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-55.61%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6100
Days to maturity:
214
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-59.90%
BELOW HURDLE