Pair #2376

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JOV

Will Iva Jovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4158

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Iva Jovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20JOVBAD-JOV

Will Iva Jovic win the Jovic vs Badosa : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49711

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.3900
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Iva Jovic wins the Jovic vs Badosa professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning any Miami Open match. Winning a Miami Round of 64 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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