Pair #2374

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 70032

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR21MUCBOU-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the Muchova vs Boulter : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-03-21T17:00:00Z
Volume: 623

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the Muchova vs Boulter professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning the Miami Open Round of 32 are in different tournaments entirely. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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