Pair #2370

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1372

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20RUSKEY-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Ruse vs Keys : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-03-20T21:30:00Z
Volume: 6570

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins the Ruse vs Keys professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is entirely independent from winning a WTA Miami Open Round of 64 match. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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