Pair #2367

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20JONPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Jones vs Pegula : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 10377

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Jones vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is entirely independent from winning a WTA Miami Open Round of 64 match. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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