Pair #2364

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-AANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3038

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR21ANISTA-ANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win the Anisimova vs Starodubtseva : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-03-21T17:00:00Z
Volume: 729

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins the Anisimova vs Starodubtseva professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is completely independent from winning a WTA Miami Open Round of 32 match. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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