Pair #2362

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-SGAR

Will Sergio Garcia win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28546

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sergio Garcia wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-SGAR

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Sergio Garcia finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 874

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sergio Garcia finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:08Z

Reasoning: If Sergio Garcia wins the LIV Golf South Africa, he necessarily finishes top 10 (1st place is within top 10). The reverse does not hold — a top-10 finish doesn't mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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