Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-SGAR
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Sergio Garcia finish top 10?
Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 874
YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.5800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sergio Garcia finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SGAR
Will Sergio Garcia win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sergio Garcia
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 787417
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sergio Garcia wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:05:08Z
Reasoning: These are two completely independent events at different tournaments. Finishing top 10 at LIV Golf South Africa has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.7910
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A