Pair #2357

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11871

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so finishing top 5 there has no logical bearing on winning a major. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue