Pair #2354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11871

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4018

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: If Cantlay finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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