Pair #2349

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2123

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BKOE

Valspar Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47059

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:04:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 10 finish (a player could collapse in Round 4 and fall outside top 10). And finishing top 10 does not require leading after R3. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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