Pair #2340

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-DTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Thompson finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11025

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14350

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:04:30Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. However, a top 20 finish does not imply a top 5 finish — Thompson could finish 6th through 20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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