Pair #2338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1659

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:04:30Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so a top 5 finish there has no logical bearing on winning a major. And winning a major does not imply any result at the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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