Pair #2323

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JVAN

Valspar Championship: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8065

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JVAN

Valspar Championship: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14227

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well, since top 10 is a subset of top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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