Pair #2318

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 886

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1635614

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:55Z

Reasoning: A player can win a golf tournament without having led after Round 3 (e.g., coming from behind in Round 4). Leading after Round 3 also does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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