Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JBRI
Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 886
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacob Bridgeman is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JBRI
Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24841
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:55Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish. These are independent outcomes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A