Pair #2312

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1635614

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JBRI

Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24841

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is inside the top 5. However, finishing top 5 does not require winning. So the win implies top 5, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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