Pair #2311

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JBRI

Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24841

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5694716

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar Championship is a completely different event from winning the Masters Tournament. No logical connection between the two.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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