Pair #2305

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 512

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:36Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Leading after Round 3 of the Valspar has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour Major in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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