Pair #2304

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 512

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 736952

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after Round 3 (a player could be behind after Round 3 and win in Round 4), and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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