Pair #2301

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 512

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7756

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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