Pair #23

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15858

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. Winning Miami does not imply winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning Miami.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 51.42% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7200
Days to maturity: 289
Hurdle yield: 4.17%
Excess yield: +47.25% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:49:50Z

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