Pair #2299

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2103

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 3 of the Valspar Championship (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a major in 2026. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -7.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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