Pair #2298

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2103

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2175602

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship does not require leading after round 3 (a player can win from behind entering the final round), and leading after round 3 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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