Pair #2286

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 293771

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22424

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 10. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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