Pair #2285

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1012

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 293771

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 3 (a player can win without leading after Round 3). Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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