Pair #2284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 529

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22424

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 as well. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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