Pair #2281

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22424

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11024

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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