Pair #2280

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1012

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11024

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: A top 20 finish does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue