Pair #2279

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 529

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMA

Valspar Championship: Will Alex Smalley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11024

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:03:02Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue