Pair #2269

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-DGHI

Will Doug Ghim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Doug Ghim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4210

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Doug Ghim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-DGHI

Will Doug Ghim win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Doug Ghim
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 527525

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Doug Ghim wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:02:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require having led after Round 3 (a player could come from behind in Round 4), and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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