Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DGHI
Valspar Championship: Will Doug Ghim finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Doug Ghim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6235
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Doug Ghim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DGHI
Valspar Championship: Will Doug Ghim finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Doug Ghim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3604
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Doug Ghim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:02:45Z
Reasoning: If Ghim finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A