Pair #2260

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-DLIP

Will David Lipsky lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8107

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Lipsky is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-DLIP

Will David Lipsky win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1183137

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Lipsky wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:02:28Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 3 (a player can come from behind in Round 4), and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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