Pair #226

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-CHI

Will Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 92715

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-CHI

Will Chicago Blackhawks win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8530

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require winning the Central Division (wild card teams can win the Cup). Winning the Central Division does not imply winning the Stanley Cup Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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