Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-CHI
Will Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 92715
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLCENTRAL-26-CHI
Will Chicago Blackhawks win the NHL Central Division?
Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8530
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:17Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require winning the Central Division (wild card teams can win the Cup). Winning the Central Division does not imply winning the Stanley Cup Finals.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.06%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.27%
BELOW HURDLE