Pair #2256

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-DLIP

Will David Lipsky lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8107

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Lipsky is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DLIP

Valspar Championship: Will David Lipsky finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11805

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Lipsky finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:02:28Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (could collapse in Round 4), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 3. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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