Pair #225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-CHI

Will Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 92715

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-CHI

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Chicago Blackhawks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6439

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chicago Blackhawks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:17Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Chicago Blackhawks (a Western Conference team) must have won the Western Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals means they play in the Stanley Cup Finals but could lose.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:31:56Z

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