Pair #2248

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Walker finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15515

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Walker finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Walker
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10351

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Walker finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:02:12Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing, say, 15th is top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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