Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-HLEB
Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1786
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hank Lebioda finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-HLEB
Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3404
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hank Lebioda finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z
Reasoning: If Hank Lebioda finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A