Pair #2239

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-HLEB

Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1786

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hank Lebioda finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-HLEB

Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3404

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hank Lebioda finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z

Reasoning: If Hank Lebioda finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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