Pair #2237

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-HLEB

Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2427

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hank Lebioda finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-HLEB

Valspar Championship: Will Hank Lebioda finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hank Lebioda
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3404

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hank Lebioda finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z

Reasoning: If Hank Lebioda finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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