Pair #2233

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 516

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSMI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1748

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:01:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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